Minimum Points Needed for Champions League Qualification & Premier League Survival

Qualifying for the Champions League from the Premier League this season is set to require a 15-year low points tally after a sharp decline in quality among the contenders in recent years.

That calculation is even notwithstanding Manchester City’s upcoming UEFA ban and the likelihood that finishing in fifth place will now be enough to get into the Champions League.

Sergio Aguero,Riyad Mahrez,Kevin De Bruyne,Kyle Walker

Based on points per game averages from the 2019/20 season so far, to finish in the top four one point ahead of fifth place could require 59 points. If City’s exclusion is upheld and a team only needs to finish one point ahead of sixth for Champions League qualification, that drops to 57.

It is in stark contrast to the much higher points tallies required to get into the Champions League over the last few years, highlighting a marked and very sudden decline in the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea.

Just last season, finishing one point clear of fifth place required 71 points. That figure has been higher than 70 points in six of the last eight seasons, peaking at 76 points in 2016/17.

Now, however, the predicted 59 points it may take for a top four finish is as low as 2004/05. Back then, 59 points would have been good enough to finish one point clear of fifth place and Everton took advantage. The fact that Liverpool were fifth and qualified as holders is actually irrelevant here because the Reds finished on the same number of points as sixth place Bolton.

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